Dealing with the Dragon - What is India signalling?

Both of the countries are among the most populated countries of the world, both of them are neighbors and both started their growth trajectory almost at the same time and at the same levels. Yet, China is far ahead of India today in almost every sphere ranging from infrastructure to social indicators. China is India's most important neighbor and its biggest trading partner with India-China trade being pegged at around 9% of India's total trade. At around $70 billion this number is expected to surpass $100 billion by 2015. But, India has a huge deficit to the tune of $40 billion mainly because China is a global manufacturing and export hub.



The relationship between India and China has always been of distrust, a situation that has persisted since the pre-independence days. I won't go into the past details and would just state the fact that both the countries know that their peaceful co-existence is a must for their own development and for the development of the people of India and China. This realisation among both the countries is strengthened by the fact that despite frequent army confrontations on the disputed border between India and China not a single bullet has been fired on the border since 1975.

Coming to the present scenario, the swearing in of Narendra Modi as the PM has definitely brought optimism in the India-China relationship with the Chinese Premier calling Mr. Modi after he took charge of his post and having a 40 minute long conversation. This clearly showed that China accepts Mr. Modi as the leader and is willing to do business with the country. The ongoing visit of the Chinese Foreign Minister Mr. Wang Yi is an affirmation of Chinese interest in India.
                                     
The meeting between the foreign ministers of India & China on June 8th.
                               
China's particular interest in India is due to the fact that its own market is getting saturated and it needs another base where it can continue with its infrastructural adventures. It is the thriving infrastructure development that has catapulted China to spot of second largest economy in the world. India on the other hand lacks basic infrastructure like highways, railways, warehouses, etc. Providing China a chance to invest in India can help the country increase its pace of development. In the meeting with the Indian foreign minister Mrs. Sushma Swaraj both the countries have decided to inject new momentum in the ties by pushing for exploring untapped opportunities, finishing previous projects and removing hurdles in economic cooperation. China's engineering capabilities can be of immense help to India.

Even when he was the Chief Minister of Gujarat, Mr. Modi visited China and the visit was termed as a highly successful visit. Modi's image as the Messiah of corporates has always attracted praise and compliments from all the top countries including China. And this is also the reason why China is eager to work with India.

India has been eager to follow and catch up with China in a race which it has been loosing but the new government has also signaled that this is a government that can't be bullied easily. China's aggressive troop & infrastructure building along the border has been a cause of concern since the past few years. Its territorial claims on Arunachal Pradesh has also been a reason for some diplomatic scuffles during the past. Seeing these issues it can be said that Mr. Modi has chosen his ministers very carefully sending a clear signal to China that Arunachal is an inseparable part of India and the country is willing to concentrate on the borders when it comes to troop and infrastructure building.
Consider allowing visits on stapled visas: Rijiju
Mr. Rijiju has promoted development of settlements along the border with China
Choosing Mr. Kiren Rijiju as the Minister of State for Home Affairs who hails from Arunachal Pradesh affirms the first fact and choosing General (Retd.) V.K. Singh the former Army chief as the in charge of development of North East states affirms the second fact. Commitment to build settlements and infrastructure along the border by the Indian government are steps to affirm its territorial claim in the area which rightfully belong to India.

China on the other hand has been involved in disputes with most of its neighbors being it the mighty Japan & South Korea or the smaller ones like Philippines & Vietnam. With no credible friends in Asia, China would never want India to tilt towards Japan as that could put pressure on China's aggressive expansion plans as a world superpower. Keeping in view the friendly relations between India and Japan it is unlikely that India will be a completely neutral party in the dispute between the two countries, but the ultimate call is to be taken by the PM and his cabinet.

A Chinese vessel spraying water canon on Vietnamese vessel
in the South China Sea.

For the time being it is quite evident that China will follow its policy of aggressive expansion in the Asia-Pacific region. Chinese activities in POK, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka has also caught India's attention and its on India to defend its interests by developing cordial relationship with all the close neighbors. Mr. Modi's first foreign visit to Bhutan after taking office as the PM is a positive step towards India's outlook on its relationships with close neighbors. And when it comes to US and Japan , India should balance its stand by being a neutral party defending its interest without tilting towards China or the US-Japan duo.

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